The 2020s have unfolded as a decade of overlapping crises — pandemics, political instability, economic shocks, and a sharp resurgence of war. But beneath the headlines lies a deeper question: are wars genuinely more common today, and if so, are climate pressures and diminishing resources part of the cause?
Conflict research suggests the answer to the first question is yes. The second is more complicated.
Recent data from global conflict monitors shows that state‑based wars have reached their highest levels since World War II, driven by major conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Myanmar. Wars and armed conflicts have become significantly more common and deadly since 2020, reaching their highest levels since World War II. This marks a clear break from the relative stability of the early 2000s and 2010s.
The New Landscape of War
The post‑2020 conflict environment is defined by several striking shifts:
- Record-high active state conflicts
- Annual battle deaths exceeding 240,000
- Foreign interventions doubling since 2008
- Global military spending rising to $2.9 trillion
These trends point to a world where diplomacy is weakening, geopolitical rivalry is intensifying, and international norms are eroding.
One particularly alarming metric is that peace agreements are failing, with only 4% of conflicts ending via treaties compared to 23% in the 1970s.
The machinery of peace is breaking down. There seems to be less will for peace and greater investment in sustained conflict.
Climate Change: Not the Spark, but the Fuel
Climate change and resource scarcity are often cited as causes of modern conflict. Yet the evidence shows they are not primary drivers — they are risk multipliers.
Climate as a Threat Multiplier
Climate change rarely ignites wars directly. Instead, it destabilises societies already under strain:
- Droughts destroy crops and livelihoods
- Floods displace communities
- Desertification pushes pastoralists into farming regions
- Extreme weather undermines fragile governments
Climate change does not typically cause direct inter-state warfare. Instead, it worsens underlying social and economic vulnerabilities.
When livelihoods collapse, recruitment by armed groups becomes easier. When governments fail to respond, grievances deepen. When desperation rises, violence follows.
Scarcity — and Abundance — of Resources
Resource scarcity fuels localised conflicts, especially in fragile regions:
- Water shortages
- Loss of arable land
- Competition between herders and farmers
But abundance can be even more dangerous.
The global race for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare minerals — essential for green technology — has intensified geopolitical competition. In places like the DRC, resource wealth funds armed groups and prolongs war.
The War–Climate Feedback Loop
The relationship between war and climate is not one‑directional. It is a destructive cycle.
Global militaries account for roughly 5.5% of all global greenhouse gas emissions… war heavily accelerates climate change.
Conflict destroys infrastructure, burns cities, and releases massive emissions. Rebuilding after war produces even more.
Climate change increases conflict risk. Conflict accelerates climate change. A vicious loop.
Some might argue that the real drivers of Post‑2020 conflict are as follows – but these assumptions lead to more questions than answers
Despite environmental pressures, the perceived influential drivers of modern war remain political:
- Weak governance and corruption
- Breakdown of diplomacy
- Major powers ignoring international norms
- Foreign interventions escalating local conflicts
- Rising authoritarianism and geopolitical rivalry
Climate change amplifies these forces, but for me increasing wars and fights for resources were very much predicted to be on the cards years ago as an output due to climate crisis, global warming and a hunt for resources.
Conclusion: A Hotter World, A Colder Politics
Wars are more common in the 2020s — not because the planet is simply running out of resources, but because political systems are failing to manage the pressures of a warming, crowded, unequal world.
Climate change doesn’t start wars. But it makes them easier to start, harder to stop, and far more devastating.
The 2020s show us a world where environmental stress and geopolitical instability now move in tandem. Understanding this relationship is essential if we hope to break the cycle.
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